Beyond the Mean: Examining Electricity Spot Price Distribution in Australia
使用分位数回归模型，研究澳大利亚国家电力市场中可变可再生能源发电、天然气价格等因素如何影响电力现货价格的不同分位点，发现可再生能源在低价时有效降低电价，但在高价时作用有限，而高气价持续推高价格尾部。
We extend beyond conventional mean-to-mean effects to examine how fundamental variables impact the entire distribution of electricity spot prices in the Australian National Electricity Market. Employing quantile regression models, we demonstrate that variable renewable energy (VRE) generation effectively lowers spot prices at lower quantiles when electricity is relatively inexpensive. However, its role in reducing prices is marginal or negligible at higher quantiles when electricity becomes more costly. High gas prices persist as a significant market challenge, with marginal increases causing price surges at the tails of the price distribution. Analysis of the 2022 energy crisis shows the limited capability of VRE and interconnectors to counteract high gas and coal prices, along with opportunistic hydro generators. The findings underscore the need for policies promoting further renewable energy adoption, a reassessment of the role of gas generation, and strategies to enhance energy market resilience.