Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books
研究使用自动做市商构建去中心化预测市场，提出基于流动性的做市结构，并分析流动性池化与撤回对市场行为的影响，同时设计合理的交易费用以补偿流动性提供者。
ABSTRACT Prediction markets allow traders to bet on potential future outcomes. These markets exist for weather, political, sports, and economic forecasting. Within this work, we consider a decentralized framework for prediction markets using automated market makers (AMMs). Specifically, we construct a liquidity‐based AMM structure for prediction markets that, under reasonable axioms on the underlying utility function, satisfy meaningful financial properties on the cost of betting and the resulting pricing oracle. Importantly, we study how liquidity can be pooled or withdrawn from the AMM and the resulting implications for the market behavior. In considering this decentralized framework, we additionally propose financially meaningful fees that can be collected for trading to compensate the liquidity providers for their vital market function.