Blockchain in Dual-Distribution Markets Under Demand Uncertainty: Mitigating Gray Trade Through Penalty Design
研究品牌商如何利用区块链的追溯功能和智能惩罚合同，在需求不确定的双分销市场中抑制灰色市场活动，并分析其对零售商和社会福利的影响。
This study examines how brand owners use blockchain technology to address the challenges posed by gray market activities under demand uncertainty. First, by utilizing blockchain's downward traceability feature, the brand can precisely track the flow and quantities of gray market products. Then, using real-time updated product information, smart penalty contracts are employed to penalize gray marketer, thereby mitigating the impact of gray market invasion. Within a dual-distribution model, we find that the retailer's gray market behavior in the low-price market harms the high-price market retailer. However, the brand may benefit from the gray market when the market size disparity is large and the proportion of loyal consumers in the high-price market is relatively low. Blockchain adoption effectively reduces the gray market scale, thus benefiting the high-price retailer, particularly when market size disparity is relatively high. Research shows that when blockchain cost and penalty fees meet certain conditions, blockchain can achieve a win-win-win situation for the brand and both retailers. Crucially, higher demand variance strengthens the brand's willingness to adopt blockchain to combat gray market. The results also show that excessive blockchain cost would reduce the brand's willingness to adopt, consumer surplus, and social welfare. However, lower demand variance or a higher proportion of loyal consumers expands the conditions under which blockchain can enhance social welfare.