Estimating Complementarity With Large Choice Sets: An Application to Mergers
标准离散选择模型假设所有产品为替代品，可能高估并购的消费者损害。本文开发了一种在大型选择集中仍可计算的需求互补性估计方法，应用于薯片和汽水市场，发现忽略互补性会使并购后的汽水价格涨幅高估33%。
ABSTRACT Standard discrete choice demand models assume that all products are substitutes. Merger analyses based on these models may overstate consumer harm. We develop an estimator that identifies demand complementarity and remains computationally feasible with large choice sets. We apply this estimator to the chips and soda market and find a high degree of complementarity between these product groups. We show that a counterfactual merger ignoring complementarity between PepsiCo/Frito‐Lay and Dr. Pepper generates price increases for soda that are 33% larger than a model with complementarity, and that post‐merger chip prices decrease when accounting for complementarity.