Regional Synchronization in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
研究了1960-2023年美国四大区域能源相关二氧化碳排放的短期波动同步性，发现石油排放全国同步，而煤和天然气排放存在区域差异，对气候政策设计有参考价值。
This paper examines regional comovement in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across the four major U.S. Census regions—Northeast, Midwest, South, and West—over the period 1960–2023. Using a dynamic factor model (DFM), we extract latent common factors from standardized annual emission changes for coal, natural gas, and petroleum, allowing us to distinguish nationwide from region-specific short-run fluctuations. The results reveal strong national synchronization in petroleum-related emission dynamics, consistent with the influence of integrated fuel markets, macroeconomic cycles, and federal transportation policies. In contrast, coal and natural gas emissions exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity in their cyclical adjustment patterns, reflecting differences in generation portfolios, resource endowments, and regulatory environments. Granger-causality analysis further uncovers directional substitution from coal to gas factors, highlighting the asymmetric nature of decarbonization in the power sector. By focusing on standardized annual emission changes, the analysis isolates short-run adjustment patterns and the propagation of national shocks across regions. These findings clarify how different energy sectors respond to common policy and market forces and underscore the importance of distinguishing nationally synchronized from regionally differentiated dynamics when designing climate policy