Senegal: Between Political Instability and Democratic Consolidation
本文纠正了关于塞内加尔政治稳定和民主化的两种流行说法，指出该国自2000年才真正民主化，并分析了民主韧性的社会规范与制度自主性原因。
Abstract Senegal experienced much political turbulence under President Macky Sall. Journalists and observers regularly make two claims. The first is that Senegal has long been a haven of stability and democracy in Africa. The second is that the anti-democratic and repressive moves by President Sall led to an institutional crisis without precedent. We partially correct these two popular claims. With minor caveats, Senegal has indeed been a haven of political stability since independence. However, the political system only became democratic around 2000. Democratization is ongoing and has faced serious setbacks. Sall’s attempt in 2024 to postpone the presidential election is indeed without precedent. However, we examine his predecessors’ legacies to show that political repression, attempts to overstay in power, and even delays in parliamentary elections are not uncommon. Finally, we contend that democratic resilience in Senegal is the result of social norms such as dialogue and tolerance that are widely shared and of bottom-up pressure on incumbents, in addition to the autonomy of key institutions such as the judiciary. These same reasons suggest that Senegal could become a consolidated democracy even in a regional context of democratic backsliding and military coups.