Taylor Rule Deviations Across Horizons: A Practical Tool for Monetary Policy
为美国提出跨期限的“泰勒规则收益率”，通过比较市场预期利率与中性政策下的利率，衡量货币政策立场，并帮助区分有效下限与其他因素的影响。
Abstract We propose “Taylor rule yields” across horizons for the United States. Applying the standard Taylor rule to expected paths of inflation and the output gap, we construct a sequence of short‐term rates under neutral monetary policy stances, whose average defines the Taylor rule yield at each horizon. Taylor rule deviations (TRDs), the gaps between market‐expected rates and these yields, excluding risk premia, capture the effective stance of monetary policy even under the effective lower bound (ELB). TRDs also help disentangle the role of the ELB from other factors, offering insight into the severity and nature of the policy constraint.