Technical talk in bitcoin and equity
研究发现,在信息稀缺时,投资者更依赖技术交易语言来解释价格波动;比特币讨论中的技术性用语与收益呈U型关系,极端行情时使用更多,而股票讨论中的技术性用语集中在市场收益中位数附近。
We investigate whether investors rely more on technical trading language to rationalise price movements in the absence of substantive information. Compared to equity markets, cryptocurrency markets are characterised by high volatility, often occurring without clear explanation from new information. We apply a machine-learning-based vocabulary of technical trading terms to comments from cryptocurrency- and equity-related subreddits on Reddit.com and analyse how investors use technical talk in different market conditions. We find a U-shaped relationship between technical talk and Bitcoin returns, with higher usage during extreme price movements, while technical talk on equity subreddits is concentrated around median market returns. Technical talk increases in cryptocurrency markets when news is scarce but rises in equity markets alongside greater news availability. Our results suggest that technical talk provides an important communication channel for social media users to describe price variation when information is scarce.