Bitcoin bans & regulatory segmentation in digitally native asset markets
研究19国2013-2024年比特币禁令对市场整合的影响，发现禁令效果有限，大型市场部分分割，小型市场反而更整合，技术联系超越监管边界。
• Bitcoin bans show limited effectiveness in segmenting technologically integrated markets. • Large markets achieve partial segmentation; small markets show paradoxical integration. • Market size and development explain <10 % of regulatory effectiveness variation. • Technological integration creates persistent linkages transcending regulations. • Heterogeneous outcomes suggest international coordination over unilateral bans. We examine whether regulatory barriers segment technologically integrated financial markets using Bitcoin bans across 19 countries (2013–2024). Unlike traditional markets where infrastructure creates natural frictions, Bitcoin operates on a global, permissionless network. Using proper maximum likelihood BEKK-GARCH and CCC-GARCH estimation, we find no significant differences in market integration between liberal and conservative regulatory regimes across four complementary tests. However, country-specific analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: major markets (China, Russia) achieve partial segmentation while smaller markets show counter-intuitive increases in integration post-ban. Market size and development explain less than 10% of regulatory effectiveness variation. These findings challenge traditional segmentation theory, demonstrating that decentralized technology creates persistent cross-market linkages that transcend regulatory boundaries. The heterogeneous and often counterproductive regulatory outcomes suggest policymakers should prioritize international coordination over unilateral restrictions when addressing digitally native assets.