Fertility responses to tropical cyclones: Causal evidence and mechanisms
利用个体固定效应模型，发现澳大利亚最严重的5级热带气旋导致生育率显著且永久下降，尤其影响年轻、低学历、无子女及无保险人群，机制包括家庭形成减少、婚姻破裂、儿童死亡、房屋损坏、心理压力和风险感知上升。
In light of growing concerns over escalating natural disaster risks and persistently low fertility rates, this paper quantifies the causal impacts of tropical cyclones and identifies the pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed effects model and exogenous variation in cyclone exposure, we find a robust and substantial decline in fertility, occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones, with the effect weakening as distance from the cyclone's eye increases. We find no evidence of delayed cyclone effects, indicating that the fertility loss attributable to these most severe cyclones is permanent. Our findings are robust to extensive validity checks, including a falsification test and various randomization tests. The fertility decline is most pronounced among younger adults, individuals with lower educational attainment, those childless at baseline, and those lacking prior private health or residential insurance. While physical health, financial constraints, and migration appear unlikely to drive the effect, the evidence points to reduced family formation, increased marital breakdown, child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, elevated psychological stress, and heightened risk perceptions as plausible mechanisms.