News Shocks, Precautionary Saving and Frictional Labour Markets
研究全要素生产率（TFP）的坏消息如何通过摩擦性劳动力市场引发预防性储蓄和消费下降，导致经济衰退，并基于异质性主体新凯恩斯模型和实证证据支持这一机制。
Abstract This paper develops a theory of how TFP news shocks can impact the economy via a Keynesian supply channel. With frictional labour markets, bad TFP news reduces firms’ incentive to post vacancies, worsening households’ employment prospects. Households respond by accumulating liquid assets and cutting spending for precautionary reasons, triggering a recession that compounds the labour market downturn. This mechanism is outlined analytically and numerically in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, with supporting local projection evidence. The combination of labour market frictions and precautionary saving is necessary to match the joint output and nominal interest rate dynamics observed empirically following a news shock. In contrast to previous theories, the transmission mechanism leaves room for policy to mitigate the shock’s contractionary effects.