The global geopolitical-energy uncertainty index and total factor productivity: New evidence from firm-level analysis
研究了全球地缘政治-能源不确定性指数对企业全要素生产率的影响，发现该指数显著降低企业生产率，且对发达国家、能源密集型企业和小企业影响更大，企业盈利能力和能源价格会调节这种效应。
This paper examines the impact of the global geopolitical-energy uncertainty (GEU) on firm-level total factor productivity, considering variation across countries, industries, and firm sizes. Employing the novel GEU index proposed by Dang et al. (2024a) and firm-level annual data from 2001 to 2023, we find strong evidence that the GEU index negatively affects firm productivity. There is heterogeneity in the GEU index's impact. Firms in developed countries such as the US, UK, France, and Germany are more negatively affected, whereas Canadian firms show a positive response. Energy-intensive firms and smaller firms experience stronger negative impacts. Mechanism analysis further demonstrates that both firm level characteristics and macroeconomic energy conditions shape productivity responses to GEU. Higher profitability reduces the negative impact of GEU shocks, while higher cost intensity and higher global energy prices amplify the adverse effects, increasing productivity losses. Our baseline results remain robust under different robustness checks. The paper's findings offer guidance for firms to develop effective strategies to manage risks during periods of heightened geopolitical-energy uncertainty.