Investing in carbon transportation under volume uncertainty and scaling flexibility
研究了在CO2数量和价格不确定下，碳运输与储存运营商如何选择最优投资策略，发现船运方案因灵活性和短交付期比管道更具价值，但投资门槛仍高，需政策支持。
The transition to climate neutrality requires significant expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure. However, uncertainty in CO 2 volumes and prices creates challenges for transport and storage (T&S) operators in determining optimal investment strategies. This study develops a real options analysis (ROA) framework to evaluate investment decisions in large-scale, open-access T&S infrastructure, comparing flexible ship-based transport with cost-effective trunklines. Our results show that, while net present value analysis favors trunklines, ROA demonstrates that ship-based solutions provide greater value due to scalability and shorter lead times. Investment thresholds remain high (400–600 € /tCO 2 ), underscoring the need for targeted policy measures to reduce uncertainty and accelerate CCS deployment.