On the prevalence of Condorcet’s paradox
研究了253场选举数据，发现孔多塞悖论几乎没有实证相关性，没有发现循环多数的稳健证据，并分析了哪些政党更可能成为孔多塞赢家及其选举后的表现。
Abstract The Condorcet paradox has been a significant focus of investigation since Duncan Black and Kenneth Arrow rediscovered its importance for economic and political theory. Recent research on this phenomenon has oscillated between simulation studies, probability calculations based on hypothetical voter preferences, and empirical analyses of single election studies. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of 253 electoral polls conducted across 59 countries. Our findings demonstrate that the Condorcet paradox has virtually no empirical relevance: we find no robust evidence of cyclical majorities in any of the 253 elections. This result remains robust after statistical inference testing. Furthermore, this study provides insights into which parties are particularly likely to emerge as Condorcet winners and explores how these Condorcet winners assert themselves after elections.