Cross-border shopping of alcoholic beverages: Evidence from a natural experiment
利用疫情期间旅行限制作为自然实验，估计跨境购买对挪威国有酒类专卖店烈酒和葡萄酒销售的影响，发现跨境购买受限使葡萄酒销量增加56%、烈酒增加35%。
Cross-border shopping of alcoholic beverages reduces domestic sales and tax revenue. We estimate the effects of cross-border shopping on sales of hard liquor and wine in the Norwegian government-owned retail monopoly (Vinmonopolet) by using the travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. The effects are identified by using a dynamic difference-in-differences approach comparing changes in sales in stores with different driving times to the nearest foreign alcohol store. A new robust estimation method that addresses weaknesses of the commonly used two-way fixed-effects estimator is used. Cross-border shopping effects are identified within 90 min driving time to the nearest foreign alcohol store. In this area, the increased sales in Vinmonopolet are estimated to be 56 % for wine and 35 % for hard liquor due to unavailability of cross-border shopping. These increases correspond to 5 % and 4 % of national sales, respectively, and correspond to half a billion NOK in increased annual tax revenue.