Survey Expectations in the U.S. Phillips Curve
实证检验了不同调查预期在美国菲利普斯曲线中的表现，发现密歇根消费者调查的短期通胀预期是最佳衡量指标，能最大程度降低样本外预测的均方根误差。
Abstract This paper empirically examines the use of different survey expectations in the U.S. Phillips curve. I find that between the Michigan Surveys of Consumers’ (MSC) and Survey of Professional Forecasters’ (SPF) short‐ and long‐term forecasts, short‐term forecasts from the MSC are the best measure of inflation expectations for use in the Phillips curve. These results are robust to specifications of the Phillips curve with different measures of inflation, labor market slack, and sample periods. Furthermore, I find that conditional forecasts of inflation using short‐term MSC expectations lead to the greatest improvement in out‐of‐sample Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) relative to other expectations.