Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union
利用欧元区企业调查数据，发现企业通胀预期存在显著异质性，且企业基于不完全信息进行理性贝叶斯更新，地理位置对预期形成起主导作用，这对货币联盟锚定通胀预期构成挑战。
Abstract Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we show that firms’ inflation expectations exhibit significant heterogeneity, challenging the predictions of full-information rational expectations models. At the same time, we document that firms form beliefs consistent with rational Bayesian updating under incomplete information, with geographic location playing a dominant role in shaping expectations. Firms extrapolate from regional and national inflation to form euro area inflation expectations. A basic “Lucas island” model calibrated to euro area data replicates key empirical moments and highlights the structural “pass-through” from national to aggregate expectations. Our findings underscore challenges in anchoring inflation expectations in a heterogeneous monetary union.