Cross-Border M&A Flows, Economic Growth, and Foreign Exchange Rates
从企业跨境并购公告中提取未来经济状况信息，发现其能预测相对经济增长率变化和外汇汇率回报，为政策制定者和全球投资者提供新工具。
Abstract We extract information about future economic conditions from firms’ cross-border merger and acquisition announcements, and show it predicts changes in relative economic growth rates and foreign exchange rate returns. We find the predictability is driven by the acquisition decisions of domestic firms, which signal turning points in local economic growth. The findings are motivated by a simple model of exchange rate determination with heterogeneous expectations and support the theorized relationship between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. The results provide new tools for policy makers seeking to predict economic activity and offer global investors a novel source of portfolio diversification.