Pinching Pennies: Monetary Restraint and Excess Sensitivity
研究中国抵押贷款利率上调对家庭消费的影响，发现有房贷的家庭在利率宣布和调整后消费倾向分别下降2.2和2.9个百分点，主要由预防性储蓄动机驱动。
ABSTRACT This paper focuses on a series of increases in the mortgage rate in China and investigates its impacts on household consumption. Based on granular diary data, our difference‐in‐differences estimations imply that compared with that of homeowners without mortgage obligations, the average propensity of mortgagors to consume decreases by 2.2 and 2.9 percentage points after the announcement and reset of mortgage rates, respectively. The results are mainly driven by precautionary motives associated with unanticipated shocks in lending rates. Hence, the sudden adjustment of de facto policy‐controlled rates has higher welfare costs than that of market‐driven lending rates.