Adaptive expectations and reaction to information
构建了一个结合适应性预期与噪声信号的模型，推导出三个系数和一个脉冲响应函数，并证明存在参数区域使模型同时匹配数据中的四个特征，为适应性预期提供了支持证据。
Abstract This paper develops a model combining adaptive expectations with noisy signals, and derives three coefficients and one impulse response function (IRF): the Coibion–Gorodnichenko (CG) coefficient capturing consensus under‐reaction to information, the Bordalo–Gennaioli–Ma–Shleifer coefficient capturing individual over‐reaction, the Kohlhas–Walther coefficient capturing extrapolation, and the Angeletos–Huo–Sastry IRF capturing delayed overshooting. There exists a parameter region in which the model reconciles all four moments with the data simultaneously. The model also delivers a testable prediction linking the CG coefficient to variable persistence, distinguishing adaptive expectations from Kalman‐filter updating, and I present supporting evidence for adaptive expectations. The model's fit to survey data is evaluated.