Technical performance evolution of BEVs: range, consumption and weight projections to 2050
本研究基于575款纯电动汽车数据，分析2011-2024年技术参数变化，并预测到2050年续航里程、能耗和重量的三种情景，为汽车技术规划和基于重量的财政政策提供依据。
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are assuming a pivotal role in the road electrification, with continuous advancements in technology. This UK-focused study analyses the evolution of the technical parameters of BEVs between 2011 and 2024 and forecasts their development to 2050 for a range of scenarios (pessimistic, realistic and optimistic) focusing on range, energy consumption and vehicle weight. The research is underpinned by a data set of the technical specifications of 575 BEV models. The relationships between the parameters were revealed by machine learning (Random Forest and SHAP), with the forecast performed using the Prophet. The driving range of a typical C segment Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) is forecast to increase by between 60 % and 180 %, vehicle weight and energy consumption varied between 1051–2000 kg and 267–286 Wh/mile, respectively, depending on the scenarios and underlying assumptions. The findings provide evidence-based insights for automotive technology planning and weight-based fiscal policy responses.