Do Local Forecasters Have Better Information?
利用新兴和发达经济体的通胀与增长预测数据，发现外国预测者更新频率更低、误差更大，其劣势源于信息精度不足而非非理性预期，且信息优势在不确定性较低时更显著。
Abstract Using inflation and growth forecasts for a panel of emerging and advanced economies, we provide evidence that foreign forecasters publish and update their forecasts less frequently than local forecasters and make larger errors. We provide tests that identify differences in information frictions across groups and show that the lower accuracy of foreigners is not due to more irrational expectations, but to less precise information. This informational advantage is linked both to barriers to information and to incentives and is typically stronger when uncertainty is lower. These results provide a basis for disciplining international finance and trade models with heterogeneous information.