Beyond the game outcomes: how does ‘What If?’ influence fan engagement?
研究比赛结果和球迷的反事实思维（“如果……会怎样”）如何影响口碑和参与意向，发现反思性反事实思维即使在球队失利后也能增强球迷的正面口碑，尤其对竞争性较低的球迷效果更明显。
Research question This study examines how game outcomes and fans’ counterfactual thinking (‘what if’) influence word-of-mouth (WOM) and participation intention toward team events, and how trait competitiveness and team identification moderate these effects.Research methods Two experimental studies used championship game outcomes (NBA Finals and Super Bowl) as comparison stimuli. Following the actual game results, participants engaged in either reflective or evaluative counterfactual thinking. Trait competitiveness and team identification were measured as moderators, and WOM intention toward a team event served as the dependent variable, with participation intentions additionally measured in Study 2.Results and Findings Study 1 revealed that reflective counterfactual thinking enhanced positive WOM intention, even after a team's loss, especially for less competitive fans. Highly competitive fans exhibited stronger WOM intention when they engaged in evaluative counterfactual thinking after a loss. After losses, fans with high and low levels of team identification had significantly higher levels of intention with reflective counterfactual thinking. However, after wins, only lowly identified fans showed significantly stronger intentions with evaluative thinking, while highly identified fans showed no significant difference between counterfactual modes. Study 2 revealed a similar pattern for participation intention.Implications This research highlights the role of reflective counterfactual thinking in sustaining fan engagement through WOM and team event participation, even after negative outcomes. Sports marketers can use these insights to develop tailored strategies based on fans’ competitive traits and level of team identification to promote fans’ positive engagement through targeted messaging, even in challenging circumstances such as team defeat.