The Flaw of Averages
指出，依赖平均值（期望值）进行决策是一种常见谬误，如同认为地球是平的。这种谬误渗透于商业、政府和军事规划，曾掩盖次贷危机，并将继续困扰危机清理工作。
The measure of central tendency that Gould refers to is typically the average, also known as the expected value, and the mistakes he warns of result from a common fallacy as fundamental as the belief that the Earth is flat. It permeates planning activities in business, government and the military. It helped mask the recent subprime mortgage fiasco until it became a world crisis, and it will plague those trying to clean up the mess. It's even enshrined within accounting codes.