The Pace of Mineral Depletion in the United States
通过比较美国铜、石油和煤炭的实际耗竭速度与理论最优速度，发现市场特许权使用费与质量耗竭成本基本一致，表明耗竭速度接近最优。历史证据显示行业决策具有远见，特许权使用费的长期周期可用于预测耗竭速度。
A simple test compares the pace of copper, oil, and coal depletion in the US with the theoretically optimal pace. The royalties that would have covered past copper, oil, and coal quality depeltion costs are generally in close agreement with market royalty payments. This agreement suggests that the pace of mineral depletion in the US has remained reasonably close to the theoretical optimum. Historical evidence indicates that the lack of future markets and much uncertainty lead not to myopic industry behavior, but to farsighted decision making. Long-run cycles and peaks in the cycles of royalties, then, may be used to predict long-run cycles in the pace of depletion. 42 references, 2 figures, 6 tables.