The influence of decentralized taxes and intergovernmental grants on local spending volatility
基于20个OECD国家1972-2007年数据，研究发现上级转移支付波动加剧地方支出波动，而地方税收波动（尤其是财产税）则相反，表明依赖转移支付会损害支出稳定性。
This paper studies what affects the volatility of sub-central public spending in 20 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and\nDevelopment (OECD) countries. The evidence based on data from 1972 to 2007 shows that the volatility of intergovernmental grants from upper levels is positively associated with the volatility of local expenditure. On the other hand, the volatility of local tax revenues – mainly that of property taxes – exerts the opposite effect. These findings suggest that making local governments rely more on grants than own tax revenues adversely affects their spending stability. Allowing them to levy autonomously taxes relying on responsive tax bases provides incentives to smooth their expenditure.