Income and Population Growth
利用1960-2007年139个国家的面板数据，以国际油价冲击作为外生变量，发现人均GDP增长每提高1个百分点，10年内人口增长约增加0.1个百分点，该效应源于生育率上升和婴幼儿死亡率下降。
Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this study we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960–2007, we interact changes in international oil prices with countries' average net‐export shares of oil in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in GDPper capita growth over a 10‐year period increases countries' population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Furthermore, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.