The Macroeconomics of Microfinance
通过构建包含企业家精神和金融摩擦的定量宏观模型，分析小额信贷的总体和分配效应，发现长期一般均衡下小额信贷对人均收入影响较小，但多数人口直接或间接受益，且穷人福利改善更大。
Abstract What is the aggregate and distributional impact of microfinance? To answer this question, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic framework of entrepreneurship and financial frictions in which microfinance is modelled as guaranteed small-size loans. We discipline and validate our model using recent empirical evaluations of small-scale microfinance programs. We find that the long-run general equilibrium impact is substantially different from the short-run effect. In the short-run partial equilibrium, output and capital increase with microfinance but total factor productivity (TFP) falls. In the long run, when general equilibrium effects are considered, as should be for economy-wide microfinance interventions, scaling up microfinance has only a small impact on per-capita income, because an increase in TFP is offset by lower capital accumulation. However, the vast majority of the population benefits from microfinance directly and indirectly. The welfare gains are larger for the poor and the marginal entrepreneurs, although higher interest rates in general equilibrium tilt the gains toward the rich.