Perceived Inflation Persistence
构建了一个名为感知通胀持续性的指标，用于判断专业预测者的通胀预测是否反映出通胀持续性发生了变化。该指标基于预测者特定的状态空间模型估计的隐含自相关函数。研究发现，自20世纪90年代中期以来，美国感知通胀持续性发生了变化，预测者之间在较低持续性水平上达成了更多共识。与实际通胀的自相关函数相比，预测者对通胀冲击的反应通常比实际通胀数据所显示的要小。
This article constructs and estimates a measure called perceived inflation persistence that can be used to determine if professional forecasters’ inflation forecasts indicate there has been a change in inflation persistence. This measure is built via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster-specific state-space model. Findings indicate that U.S. perceived inflation persistence has changed since the mid-1990s with more consensus among forecasters at lower levels of persistence. When compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation, forecasters typically react less to shocks to inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest.