Unpacking Preference: How Previous Experience Affects Auto Ownership
利用2000年美国人口普查数据，研究近期搬家者的汽车拥有量，发现从大城市搬到公交城市的人比从小城市搬来的人更可能少拥有汽车，说明偏好形成于先前经验。
As environmental concerns mount alongside increasing auto dependence, research has been devoted to understanding the number of automobiles households own. The 2000 US census public use micro sample is used to demonstrate the importance of preference formation in auto ownership by studying auto ownership among recent movers. Using a multinomial probit model, the paper demonstrates that residents in the US transit cities who moved from major metropolitan areas are more likely to own fewer vehicles than counterparts who moved from smaller metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas. It is concluded that these results are due to learned preferences for levels of car ownership. Once the self-reinforcing ‘cultural knowledge’ of living without cars is lost, it could be difficult to regain. A focus on children and young adults, familiarising them with alternatives to the car may be an important approach to developing collective preferences for fewer cars. So wrote Kain and Fauth over 30 years ago. Since then energy prices have risen, fallen and risen again; in 2007 fuel prices in the US were about 30 per cent higher than what they were in 1978 (Energy Information Administration, 2007, Table 5.24)). Increasing awareness of Introduction Increasing energy prices, rapid growth in petroleum imports, and the importance of transport in total petroleum consumption have heightened the interest of analysts and policy-makers in measures that would decrease auto ownership and use (Kain and Fauth, 1978, p. 305). 2 RAChEL WEInBERgER AnD fRAnK gOEtzKE environmental effects and a relatively new awareness of the importance in curbing greenhouse gas emissions associated with burning fossil fuels are additional impetuses policy-makers have for continuing to examine the question of auto ownership and use. In 2005, Americans registered 232 million passenger cars, vans, light duty trucks and sport utility vehicles. The number represents 1.07 registered vehicles per person over 18 (USDOT BTS, 2007). That is to say, the US has more motor vehicles in the private passenger class than it has adults and it has 1.2 motor vehicles for each licensed driver. Vehicle miles travelled per year have increased by 40 per cent over the past 20 years. This increase is due only in part to population growth; per vehicle, or roughly per driver, annual mileage has increased by 30 per cent. Fuel economy has remained relatively constant since 1990, resulting in an increase in fossil fuel consumption and related emissions. As policy-makers seek to understand the seemingly unabated and insatiable appetite for driving, it is incument upon us to revisit the issue, seeking increasingly nuanced understandings of the motivators for this behaviour. In the current paper, we examine past research on auto ownership and use in the US (measured typically as vehicle miles travelled (VMT)). We add to the literature by measuring the impact of a person’s previous observations and experiences on automobile ownership. These observations and experiences constitute what we consider ‘learning opportunities’ which form the basis of preference (Arentze and Timmermans, 2003 and 2005). The previous experience of interest is exposure to different levels of automobile ownership which we proxy by metro-area versus non-metro-area living. We estimate a model of vehicle ownership that highlights the importance of preserving and promoting environments where auto ownership is optional so that such learning opportunities continue to exist. Specifically, our finding is that people who are likely to have been exposed to relatively lower levels of auto ownership are more likely to own fewer autos, other things being equal. This becomes critically important when we analyse the literature which consistently holds that reduced VMT in dense urban areas is unlikely to be related to density alone, but that it is also at least partly due to reduced levels of auto ownership. That is, auto owners in dense areas may use their vehicles as frequently and intensively as auto owners in low-density areas (Boarnet and Crane, 2000). However, the option of choosing to live without an automobile, or with fewer autos per licensed driver, contributes to a lower VMT per capita in dense areas. The paper is divided into five sections. Following this introduction, the second section describes previous research on auto ownership and use; as well as describing the theoretical work that leads to our approach. The third section describes the data and the model. This is followed by an exposition and analysis of the model results. The final section describes conclusions following immediately from this research.