Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth
研究了20多个国家两次世界大战期间产出增长与通货膨胀或未预期通货膨胀的相关性，发现两者正相关，但未预期通货膨胀并非主因，且通缩对产出的负面影响大于通胀的正面影响。
Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time‐series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than 20 countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular, the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.