Forecasting both time varying MTBF of fighter aircraft module and expected demand of minor parts
针对战斗机模块中次要部件的需求预测问题，提出随机效应回归模型来预测模块的时变平均故障间隔时间和次要部件的预期需求，为韩国空军制定库存政策提供依据。
Abstract A fundamental aspect of inventory management of fighter aircraft is to forecast the demand of minor parts installed in the main module. Most of the existing inventory models do not take into account the time-varying characteristics of modules composed of minor parts even though the demand rate of minor parts is sensitive to the conditions of module. In this paper, we propose random-effects regression models to forecast the mean time between failure (MTBF) of modules and the expected demand for the minor parts in the module based on time-varying characteristics of modules. Subsequently, we show how they can be applied to find necessary seasonal demand of minor parts. Our study is expected to contribute to ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) in terms of providing base information for inventory policy for minor parts.