A Normative Model of Marcro Political Risk Assessment
本文构建了一个定性结构化模型，用于分析东道国层面的宏观政治风险，帮助跨国企业管理者前瞻性地评估政治环境，区分风险成因与症状，并可根据企业特定需求调整变量权重。
The purpose of this article is to develop a qualitative, structured model for analyzing comparative political risk at the host country level. To achieve this purpose, we review the literature of political risk, putting special emphasis on the causes and sources of political risk. We use this information to develop a macro political risk assessment framework. According to this framework, the sources of political risk are internal and external and related to societal, governmental, and economic factors. Our model posits macro political risk in several environmental contexts, consistent with the broadening conceptualization of the political risk construct. INTRODUCTION Political risk assessment by multinational corporations is increasing in importance. One study reported that all surveyed multinational corporations are assessing political risk for their affiliates (Hashmi and Guvenli 1992). Managing risk became one of the most important functions of a multinational company (Miller 1992). Political risk assessment has grown in importance because foreign direct investment by US multinationals has proliferated since the 1960s, political events have emerged unexpectedly, as in the case of the Iranian revolution, and the impact on the profitability of foreign operations has been swift and powerful. Consequently, the number of political risk assessment firms has increased and more firms have instituted political risk analysis in their strategic plans. The stock of US foreign direct investment (FDI) reached 1.3 trillion dollars in 1995, according to the Economic Report to the President (Council of Economic Advisors 1997, table B-105). Since much of this investment is vulnerable to expropriation, confiscation, terrorism, discrimination, and nationalization, assessing political risk is of critical importance. To help in this task, this article provides a macro political risk assessment model. This model has a number of advantages: (1) it is forward looking allowing managers to be proactive to their political risk environment, (2) it is parsimonious, (3) it is comparative in nature, (4) it can be used to assess many different political and economic systems, (5) it differentiates between causes and symptoms of political risk, and (6) it allows the political risk analyst to change the weights or importance of the variables in order to adjust the evaluation to company specific concerns. Therefore, this article develops a structured qualitative approach to assessing the political risk of a country in foreign direct investment situations. We focus on the macro political risks because they represent the systematic portion of the analysis that can be generalized across industries. POLITICAL RISK DEFINITIONS Early definitions of political risk concentrated on adverse governmental actions (Fitzpatrick 1983). Three problems were inherent in the early definitions. First, the scope of political risk was too narrow and led to inappropriate conceptualization, wrong selection of data, improper choice of analytical tools, and misinterpretation of the results (Sethi and Luther 1986; Oseghale 1993). Second, the assumption that political risk necessarily exerts negative influences on the firm is not always true. A number of researchers have challenged the assumption that the orientation of political risk is necessarily negative (Robock 1971; Ting 1988). An example of a positive variation in political risk is the transition of former communist countries to market economies. Torre and Neckar (1988) wrote that political risk is neutral, containing both negative and positive variations. Third, the emphasis of government actions and political events distracts the analyst from other causes of political risk. Fitzpatrick (1983) suggested that political risk should be viewed as a process that changes over time. Political risk can be caused by internal, external, social and governmental sources (Simon 1982). (For a review of political risk definitions (See Kobrin 1979; Simon 1982; Fitzpatrick 1983; Alon 1996). …