Carbon Prices for The Next Hundred Years
研究了气候变化影响未知且可能带来高后果时，碳排放的社会最优定价。发现碳价格与收入增长的关系受学习效应影响，定量评估显示未来百年碳价格大致与经济同步增长。
This article examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate‐change impacts are unknown, potentially high‐consequence events. The carbon price tends to increase with income. But learning about impacts, or their absence, decouples the carbon price from income growth. The price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long‐run social cost. It grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming generates information about events that could have arrived but have not done so. A quantitative assessment shows that the price grows roughly at the rate of the economy for the next 100 years.