Anchoring and subjective belief distributions
通过两个在线实验（共1467人）发现，锚定效应不仅影响点估计，还影响信念分布的高阶矩，且不同诱导方法对不专注参与者的结果有显著影响。
We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences subjective belief distributions. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on the underlying distribution and its higher moments remains unexplored. Using two pre-registered online experiments (N = 1467) and two elicitation methods, we find that anchoring impacts not just the mean, but also higher moments of belief distributions. Notably, the traditional anchoring effect in means diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than point estimates. We also find that the elicitation method matters: inattentive participants generate spiky distributions when manually entering numbers for many bins, whereas they generate flat distributions using a click-and-drag interface. These findings show that cognitive biases can extend beyond point estimates, and that the elicitation technique may impact results especially among inattentive participants.