Too Much of a Good Thing? Untangling the Relationship Between R&D Volatility and Firm Performance
研究发现研发波动性对企业绩效的影响呈倒U型，企业数字化能提升这一曲线，为管理者制定研发支出策略提供参考。
Research indicates that R&D volatility is a significant predictor of firm performance. To date, however, answers on how this relationship manifests remain elusive, and practitioners have no clear guidelines for firms' R&D spending strategy. By incorporating the strategic change view into the R&D volatility research, this study proposes a nonlinear framework to revisit the effect of R&D volatility on firm performance. Since the performance implications of a firm's strategic change are determined by the strategic fit between it and internal capability, we also explore the contingency effect of technical capability in terms of firm digitalization and TMT technical experience. Based on a panel sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2023, we find that the impact of R&D volatility on firm performance is not simply linear, but follows an inverted U-shaped pattern. Moreover, firm digitalization moderates this curvilinear effect in a way that shifts it upward. A bibliometric analysis is conducted to situate our findings within the existing literature, and these research findings provide substantial theoretical and practical implications. In conclusion, our research introduces a nonlinear framework for exploring R&D volatility for the first time.