Nonlinear Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
使用非线性Proxy-SVAR方法,发现美国经济中衰退期刺激经济对通胀影响很小,繁荣期降低通胀对失业影响也很小,这可以用名义工资刚性解释。
Abstract We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity during recessions is associated with minimal costs in terms of inflation, and reducing inflation during booms delivers small costs in terms of unemployment. These results can be rationalized by a simple model with downward nominal wage rigidities, which is also used to assess the validity of our empirical approach.