Internal initial conditions and path dependence: an experimental and AI-synthetic study of theories and awareness of unknown events
通过在线随机对照试验和AI合成实验，研究决策者的理论认知如何影响路径依赖中的初始阶段决策，发现对路径依赖的认知与乐观情绪共同作用能减少选择次优路径的可能性。
Abstract This study presents a theory-based view on path dependence, examining how decision-makers’ theories affect their preformation phase decisions. Using two online RCTs and several synthetic AI experiments with the QWERTY keyboard case, we find that awareness of path dependence combined with optimism about the future decreases the likelihood of selecting suboptimal paths. However, this effect only occurs when both factors are present, while pessimism about future outcomes does not show a significant impact, even when combined with awareness of path dependence.