Small business valuations during uncertain times
利用大量私人收购数据，研究发现经济政策不确定性高时，买家支付价格相对要价显著降低，并谈判更有利的条款，这些效应在大型企业和消费敏感行业更明显。
We examine how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects small business valuations using a large dataset of private acquisitions. During periods of elevated EPU, buyers pay significantly less relative to asking prices and negotiate more buyer-friendly deal terms, patterns consistent with heightened risk aversion, financing constraints, and behavioral frictions. These effects are concentrated among larger firms and vary across industries, with pronounced impacts in consumer-facing and regulation-sensitive sectors. To strengthen causal inference, we employ an instrumental variables strategy using Canadian EPU as an exogenous proxy. Our findings suggest that elevated uncertainty depresses small business valuations and alters deal structures in favor of buyers. By extending research on policy uncertainty to private markets, we show how non-crisis uncertainty can reduce entrepreneurial wealth and complicate exit planning. The results offer actionable insights for owners, brokers, and policymakers seeking to improve business transfer outcomes in uncertain environments.