Modelling potential demand for cycling in a small city and surrounding region
本研究利用区域战略交通模型，模拟了爱尔兰科克市及周边地区在改善基础设施和骑行认知后骑行需求的增长潜力，发现新增骑行主要来自步行和公共交通，而非小汽车，减排效果有限。
Increased cycling for non-leisure purposes is often proposed as a solution to the negative externalities of car-dependent transport systems, offering a cheap, fast, and flexible alternative. Public discourse frequently assumes mass cycling uptake will displace car trips over short distances. However, transport systems are complex, and such direct car-to-bicycle substitution cannot be assumed. This study examines the potential for increased cycling in Cork City and its region using a regional strategic transport model across scenarios incorporating improved infrastructure and more favourable cycling perceptions. Analysis uses the National Transport Authority’s Regional Modelling System for the Southwest (Cork), a four-stage model calibrated with Irish census and survey data and containing the country’s most detailed coded cycling network. Mode choice constants are adjusted and benchmarked to walking, and cycling speeds increased to reflect network upgrades. Results suggest significant potential for cycling uptake, but most trips diverted to cycling come from other sustainable modes (walking and public transport). Even optimistic scenarios yield only modest emissions reductions, highlighting the complex dynamics of modal shift and the need for complementary demand management measures to reduce car use effectively.