The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks in the Oil and Non-Oil Producing States
研究了原油市场结构性冲击对美国各州经济活动的影响，发现石油供应冲击导致就业持续下降，非石油生产州对经济状态更敏感，行业构成和人口因素影响各州对石油冲击的敏感度。
We examine the effect of structural shocks in the crude oil market on the US state-level economic activity in slack and non-slack periods, using linear and state-dependent models. We find that oil supply shocks produce a persistent and significant drop in employment, while the decline in personal income appears ten quarters after the shock. In contrast, economic activity shocks lead to a substantial and consistent increase in employment and personal income. Analyzing these responses across oil and non-oil producing states, we observe that non-oil states are more sensitive to the state of the economy, particularly in response to oil supply shocks. Further analysis shows that variations in the dynamic responses across states exhibit a regional pattern. To identify the factors contributing to these variations between states, we regress the responses on a set of state-level covariates. Our results show that industry composition and demographic factors, including educational attainment and income concentration, shape states’ sensitivity to oil shocks, underscoring the role of economic structure in mediating the effects of oil price fluctuations.