AD Two Become One: Foreign Capital and Household Credit Expansion
研究33个发达经济体发现，外国资本支持的家庭信贷扩张会降低GDP增长并增加危机风险，而国内融资的信贷扩张则无此效应，机制涉及外国资本供给增加、信贷周期逆转风险上升及对外偿债压力抑制总需求。
Abstract Rapid credit expansions predict lower output growth and banking crises, but does it matter who finances them? We identify the ultimate counterparties financing credit expansions in a panel of 33 advanced economies and find that foreign-financed household credit expansions predict lower GDP growth and higher crisis risk, but domestically financed credit expansions do not. Studying the mechanisms, we find that foreign-financed household credit expansions are accompanied by higher supply of foreign capital (reflected in low credit spreads), are followed by elevated credit cycle reversal risk, and lead to higher debt service payments to foreigners which depress aggregate demand.