Expectation traps and Neo-Fisherian policy
本文构建代际交叠模型，研究有限理性下预期驱动的衰退，发现持续停滞均衡存在，并指出弱反馈时凯恩斯政策有效，强反馈时需新费雪政策。
Periods of low interest rates and subdued inflation in advanced economies have raised the prospect of expectation traps , in which self-fulfilling pessimistic beliefs sustain recessions. This paper examines the stability and policy implications of expectation-driven recessions when agents deviate from rational expectations. We build an overlapping generations model in which belief shocks generate endogenous fluctuations in output and inflation, and show that persistent stagnation equilibria exist under bounded rationality. Optimal policy depends on the strength of feedback between current and expected income. With weak feedback, Keynesian policies— lower interest rates and higher government spending— are effective. With strong feedback, escaping the trap requires Neo-Fisherian policies— pegging interest rates and reduced fiscal spending.