Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime
利用癌症诊断时间的外生变化，发现健康冲击显著且持久地增加犯罪概率，包括初犯和再犯；经济动机和预期惩罚成本降低是两种机制，福利项目可缓解这一负外部性。
Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the timing of cancer diagnoses, we establish that health shocks elicit a large and persistent increase in the probability of committing a crime. This effect materializes in a substantial rise in both first crimes and re-offenses. We uncover evidence for two mechanisms. First, an economic motive leads individuals to compensate the loss of legal revenues with illegal earnings. Second, cancer patients face lower expected cost of punishment through a lower survival probability. Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society.