When democracy erodes at home, the EU loses clout abroad? The EU’s ability to promote democracy externally while backsliding internally
研究2000-2020年间欧盟成员国民主倒退如何影响其对外民主促进效果，发现内部民主越强，欧盟通过入盟条件促进邻国民主的能力越强。
This study explores the impact of democratic backsliding within the European Union’s (EU) member states on the effectiveness of the EU’s democracy promotion efforts between 2000 and 2020, employing quasi-experimental panel data methods. While the EU has long presented itself as a global advocate for democratic values, recent democratic erosion among its member states has prompted concerns about the EU’s commitment to its own democratic principles. This raises an important question: has this internal democratic regression undermined the efficacy of the EU’s external democracy promotion? Theoretically, this article introduces the concept of democratic credence, which posits that internal democratic erosion within the EU negatively affects its perceived democratic commitment. If the EU’s commitment to democracy is questioned, its ability to promote democracy could potentially be undermined. Focusing on the EU's neighbourhood and accession conditionality, the findings suggest that the effectiveness of accession conditionality is contingent on democracy within the EU itself. Specifically, as democracy strengthens among member states, so does its ability to use conditionality as an effective instrument to promote liberal democracy in neighbouring countries. The results suggest that the EU’s internal democratic trajectory directly affects its external effectiveness; when democracy erodes at home, the EU loses clout abroad.