Forecasted vs. Actual Generosity in Image-Concern Interventions
通过10项研究（含9个现场实验和1个实验室实验）发现，形象关注干预对消费者自主定价的慷慨行为影响很小且不稳定，而预测者却高估了其效果，避免直接比较实验条件可减少这种高估。
Prior research and lay intuition suggest that amplifying image concerns promotes generosity. We test the impact of image-based interventions in consumer elective pricing (CEP), where individuals choose how much to pay for products or services. Across 10 studies (nine field experiments and one laboratory study, n = 3,182), we examine the effects of these interventions on payments and elicit forecasts from independent participants (n = 1,636). Forecasters predict large positive effects, yet behavioral data reveal small and inconsistent impacts. What drives the inconsistency between predictions and actual outcomes? Studies with more than 4,000 forecasters show that neither simulating the decision-making experience nor prior experience with CEP improve prediction accuracy. However, avoiding direct comparisons between experimental conditions—which can artificially amplify perceived differences—reduces overestimation. These findings highlight challenges associated with transferring behavioral insights across contexts and show how forecast elicitation methods shape expectations of intervention effectiveness. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00149 .