Trade, Value Added, and Productivity Linkages: A Quantitative Analysis
在包含全球价值链、垄断竞争和品种波动的多国模型中，发现进口投入波动通过利润和效率变化影响实际GDP与生产率，模型能解释约70%的贸易关联与GDP相关性的斜率。
Traditional international real business cycle (IRBC) models produce a weak relationship between trade and cross-country real GDP (RGDP) correlations (corrRGDP), contradicting empirical findings. We reassess this quantitative puzzle in a many-country model featuring (i) global value chains, (ii) monopolistic competition, (iii) fluctuations in the number of varieties, and (iv) RGDP measurement using double deflation. In this framework, fluctuations in imported inputs cause profit and efficiency variations, reflected in measured GDP and productivity fluctuations. Using actual variations in trade linkages, the model replicates 70 percent of observed bilateral trade linkages to corrRGDP slope and 60 percent of productivity correlation slope.