Armed Conflict and Climate‐Induced Weather Disruptions in Agricultural Input Use: Evidence From Ethiopia
利用埃塞俄比亚2019和2023年的面板数据，研究发现武装冲突显著减少了化肥、改良种子等农业投入品的使用，且与干旱叠加时影响更大，导致粮食不安全加剧。
ABSTRACT The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate‐induced drought shock, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low‐ and middle‐income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate‐induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Utilizing a unique household‐ and plot‐level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key productivity‐enhancing agricultural inputs such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seed varieties, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. We find conflict exposure significantly reduces the use of productivity‐enhancing agricultural inputs: inorganic fertilizer and improved seed use decline by 9% points, while compost and manure use fall by 11% and 13% points, respectively. These effects are magnified when conflict coincides with drought exposure, with fertilizer and improved seed use dropping by 25% and 22% points, respectively. We identify disrupted input markets—specifically reduced access to and availability of inputs, as well as rising prices—as key mechanisms. Conflict‐exposed households also experience significantly higher food insecurity and lower consumption. These findings underscore the compounding risks that conflict and climatic stress pose to smallholder agriculture and rural welfare. They highlight the need for anticipatory and post‐conflict resilience strategies that maintain functioning input markets and safeguard agricultural investment under fragility.