Fair Market Value of Used Capacity Assets: Forecasts for Repurposed Electric Vehicle Batteries
研究了二手容量资产的通用估值模型，并应用于电动汽车退役锂电池，预测了两种电池化学类型在美国和中国的未来公允价值，发现磷酸铁锂电池重新利用在未来十年经济可行，而镍钴X电池因原材料价值高和寿命短更适合直接回收。
ABSTRACT In response to growing economic and environmental concerns, companies in a range of industries seek to repurpose products (assets) that retain functional capacity beyond their initial first life. This paper examines a generic valuation model for used capacity assets that can either be recycled immediately or repurposed for a second life application. We apply our model framework to lithium-ion batteries retired from electric vehicles, as these assets typically retain substantial energy storage capacity at the end of their first life. Our analysis focuses on two battery chemistries: lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-X (NCX) based. We project their future fair market values in the United States and China. Our findings indicate that repurposing LFP batteries will be economically viable in both countries for the coming decade. In contrast, for most NCX batteries immediate recycling will soon be preferable due to their more valuable raw material content and shorter usable lives.