Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict After Democratisation
研究了1919至2021年160个国家的数据，发现民主化能显著且持久地减少小规模冲突（如抗议），但对大规模冲突（如革命）的抑制效果要十多年后才显现。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of democratisation on internal conflict, with a focus on the timing of effects and the type of conflict involved. Using a local projection‐based difference‐in‐differences approach and a panel of 160 countries from 1919 to 2021, we distinguish between minor (e.g., protests and strikes) and major (e.g., revolutions and assassinations) conflict events through factor analysis. We find that democratisation leads to a substantial and persistent decline in minor conflict, with effects growing stronger over time. For major conflict, point estimates are generally negative and become statistically significant only after more than a decade post‐democratisation. These results are consistent with the view that democratisation can defuse lower‐intensity unrest, whereas evidence on large‐scale violence suggests that it is subject to a slower adjustment process. The findings enhance our understanding of the democratisation‐conflict nexus and provide insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies.